The future of business travel is facing an increasingly turbulent road, as shifting US policies, economic uncertainties, and evolving travel restrictions create a storm of unpredictability for companies and travel managers alike. The latest report from the Global Business Travel Association (GBTA) paints a concerning picture for the sector, with many industry professionals bracing for a significant slowdown in business travel volumes this year.
A Shifting Landscape: Business Travel on the Decline?
According to the GBTA’s most recent survey, over one-third of global travel managers—those responsible for overseeing corporate travel budgets—expect business travel volumes to drop significantly in 2025. This marks a stark contrast to previous years, where the outlook had been much more optimistic. In fact, less than half of the global travel buyers surveyed expect business travel spending or volume to remain unaffected by the challenges the industry is currently facing.
These findings come as the business travel industry is already navigating a difficult year. A number of prominent airlines and hotel operators have revised their outlooks, signaling potential obstacles ahead. For instance, United Airlines recently issued a double-barreled guidance, acknowledging the possibility of a recession, while Delta Air Lines withdrew its full-year forecast earlier this month, citing a range of uncertainties.
For travel managers and companies, these shifts in the broader economic landscape have created a climate of caution. As global economic conditions grow more unpredictable, the demand for business travel has begun to ebb, with companies increasingly questioning the necessity of non-essential travel.
The Disconnect: Conflicting Expectations Among Travel Managers
Interestingly, while the GBTA survey revealed a generally gloomy outlook, it also highlighted a surprising contrast in expectations. Nearly half of travel buyers—those responsible for booking and managing corporate trips—reported that they anticipate their companies will take more trips in 2025, with nearly 60% expecting increased travel spending. This suggests that, despite the overall decline in business travel projections, there is still a segment of the market that is optimistic about the sector’s future.
One possible explanation for this discrepancy is that business travel is being divided into two categories: essential and non-essential. Many companies are still committed to sending employees on necessary trips, especially for high-value meetings, conferences, and events that directly impact their bottom line. Meanwhile, less critical travel, such as trips for internal meetings or non-revenue-generating functions, may be scaled back as organizations look to cut costs and streamline operations in the face of rising economic pressures.
The Return to Pre-Pandemic Levels: A Moment of Hope?
In what could be a glimmer of hope for the industry, hotel giant Marriott recently reported that business travel had returned to pre-pandemic levels in certain markets. This is significant because the pandemic decimated business travel, with most companies opting for virtual meetings and remote work in place of face-to-face engagements. While it’s encouraging to see signs of recovery in some areas, Marriott’s upbeat report is tempered by the fact that many travel managers still remain cautious about the future.
With businesses looking to balance the benefits of in-person meetings with the flexibility and cost-efficiency of digital alternatives, it’s clear that the landscape for business travel is shifting. Corporate travel departments are under increasing pressure to justify every trip, carefully weighing the costs against the potential benefits.
The Economic Headwinds: Rising Costs and Policy Uncertainty
Much of the uncertainty surrounding business travel can be attributed to recent US policy changes. New trade policies, tightening border enforcement, and rising geopolitical tensions have all contributed to an environment where businesses are finding it increasingly difficult to plan long-term travel strategies. These shifting policies, combined with rising inflation and the looming threat of a recession, have made it harder for companies to predict travel costs or even secure the necessary travel permits for international trips.
In fact, nearly 30% of travel buyers in the latest GBTA survey forecasted a significant drop—around 20%—in their business travel spending this year. With more barriers and restrictions being placed on international travel, particularly in regions with stricter immigration policies, companies are rethinking their travel strategies. Additionally, the broader economic climate is forcing businesses to reassess the necessity of face-to-face meetings, leading to a preference for more cost-effective alternatives like virtual conferencing.
“Productive and essential business travel is threatened in times of economic uncertainty or in an environment of additional barriers and restrictions,” said Suzanne Neufang, CEO of GBTA. These comments underscore the central challenge facing the industry: while essential travel will always be in demand, the broader sector is vulnerable to the fluctuations in the global economy and the tightening of borders.
Looking Ahead: The Future of Business Travel
As the year progresses, the outlook for business travel remains clouded with uncertainty. While certain sectors, such as technology and consulting, may continue to drive business travel, the overall trend seems to point toward a more cautious approach. Companies will likely prioritize essential travel while curtailing or postponing non-critical trips. Moreover, as more businesses embrace hybrid work models, the demand for business travel may remain subdued, with virtual meetings becoming the norm rather than the exception.
For travel managers, this evolving landscape presents a challenge. They will need to adapt quickly, balancing cost efficiency with the need for face-to-face interactions that can drive business growth. Additionally, companies will have to be more strategic about when and where to travel, ensuring that each trip adds tangible value.
The road ahead for business travel may be bumpy, but as history has shown, the industry has a remarkable ability to adapt to changing conditions. While the future is uncertain, the resilience of business travel will depend on its ability to evolve, with companies and travel managers finding new ways to navigate the shifting terrain. Whether through strategic cost management, technology adoption, or a renewed focus on essential travel, the industry will continue to play a key role in connecting people and driving global commerce.
